Quantum Computing

The capacity to build and operate quantum computers, hardware platforms, error correction, and the algorithms and software that will extract advantage from them.
Hard Power / Critical Technology / Quantum Technologies

The capacity to build and operate quantum computers, hardware platforms, error correction, and the algorithms and software that will extract advantage from them.

Indicators

  • Research publication share in quantum computing
  • Quantum computing patent families
  • Operational quantum processors and qubit scale
  • Quantum startup investment
Capability Developments

Major milestones and key developments of the capability

The Capability Development Index tracks the events that move a capability — operational use, technical breakthroughs, procurement decisions and the industrial base behind them — and places each on the record with the date it happened.

Recent developments cover the current period. Historical developments are the inflection points that produced Quantum Computing as it stands today.

GovernanceSecurityTechnologyEconomy

Historical Developments

1926Erwin Schrödinger published the wave equation underlying quantum mechanics 100 years ago

The equation, developed alongside Werner Heisenberg's competing matrix formulation, gave quantum theory its mature mathematical form, laying the physical groundwork more than six decades before anyone proposed computing with it directly.

1980Paul Benioff introduced the quantum Turing machine 46 years ago

Benioff used quantum theory to describe a simplified computer, providing the first formal model of quantum computation. This helped bring the previously separate communities of quantum mechanics and computer science together.

1981Richard Feynman proposed using quantum systems to simulate quantum physics 45 years ago

Faced with exponential overhead when simulating quantum dynamics on digital computers, Richard Feynman argued in a widely cited talk that classical computers would always struggle to simulate quantum mechanical systems and suggested building computers that exploited quantum mechanics directly; Yuri Manin independently proposed that hardware based on quantum phenomena would be more efficient. The conjecture became the founding motivation for building quantum computers and is now credited as the field's conceptual starting point.

1984Charles Bennett and Gilles Brassard applied quantum theory to cryptography, showing quantum key distribution could enhance security 42 years ago

Their paper demonstrated that quantum mechanical effects could be harnessed for information security protocols. It opened quantum information science as a practical field adjacent to quantum computation.

1985David Deutsch formalised the idea of a universal quantum computer 41 years ago

The Oxford physicist described a quantum Turing machine capable of simulating any physical process, providing the theoretical foundation on which later quantum algorithms and complexity results were built.

1985David Deutsch produced Deutsch's algorithm, an early quantum oracle algorithm 41 years ago

The algorithm did not solve a practical problem but showed mathematically that querying a black box with a superposed quantum state yields more information than classical querying. It was the first in a family of oracle algorithms demonstrating quantum parallelism.

1993Bernstein and Vazirani published the Bernstein–Vazirani algorithm 33 years ago

Another oracle algorithm establishing formal separation between quantum and classical query complexity. It extended the theoretical case that quantum computers could extract information faster than classical machines.

1994Peter Shor showed a quantum computer could factor large numbers efficiently 32 years ago

Peter Shor showed that a sufficiently large quantum computer could factor large numbers and compute discrete logarithms in polynomial time, breaking RSA and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, the foundations of widely used public-key cryptography. The result gave quantum computing its first killer application, a problem of genuine practical importance solvable dramatically faster than by any known classical method, drawing broad government and commercial attention and turning an academic curiosity into a strategic technology.

1994Daniel Simon published Simon's algorithm 32 years ago

The algorithm demonstrated exponential quantum speedup for a structured oracle problem. It directly influenced the development of Shor's factoring algorithm the same year.

1994Bill Unruh published a paper doubting the practicality of quantum computers 32 years ago

Unruh questioned whether decoherence would ever permit useful quantum computation. His scepticism framed the error-correction agenda that followed.

1996Lov Grover devised a quantum algorithm offering a quadratic speed-up for search 30 years ago

Working at Bell Labs, Lov Grover showed that a quantum computer could search an unsorted list faster than any classical method, a quadratic speedup that implies symmetric key lengths are effectively halved against quantum attack. It became, alongside Shor's algorithm, one of the two canonical results most often cited to justify building quantum computers at all.

1996Seth Lloyd proved quantum computers could simulate quantum systems without exponential overhead 30 years ago

Lloyd's proof validated Feynman's earlier conjecture that quantum hardware is suited to simulating quantum physics. It established quantum simulation as a rigorous application area.

1998Experimentalists demonstrated a two-qubit quantum computer 28 years ago

The first small-scale working device established the technical feasibility of quantum computation using trapped ions and superconductors. Subsequent experiments increased qubit counts and reduced error rates.

1999Yasunobu Nakamura's team at NEC demonstrated the first superconducting qubit 27 years ago

The Japanese research group showed coherent quantum behaviour in a tiny superconducting circuit, establishing the qubit platform that Google, IBM and China's leading processors all rely on today.

2001Researchers at IBM and Stanford factored 15 into three and five using a seven-qubit computer 25 years ago

The demonstration ran a small instance of Shor's algorithm on a nuclear magnetic resonance quantum computer, the first physical execution of an algorithm that had until then existed only on paper.

2011D-Wave Systems sold the first commercial quantum computer 15 years ago

The Canadian company's quantum annealer, bought by Lockheed Martin, used a different computing approach to the general-purpose machines pursued by most rivals, and its claims of quantum speed-up were contested for years before wider acceptance that some quantum effects were genuinely at work.

2019IBM introduced IBM Quantum System One, a commercial superconducting system 7 years ago

The system marked the packaging of superconducting quantum processors into an integrated commercial product. It signalled the shift from laboratory apparatus to deployable quantum computing platforms.

October 2019Google Quantum AI and NASA claimed the first quantum supremacy on the 54-qubit Sycamore processor 7 years ago

Google reported a calculation performed millions of times faster than the Summit supercomputer, estimated to take classical machines 10,000 years. IBM disputed the claim, arguing the task could be done in about 2.5 days with optimised algorithms, sparking debate over the supremacy threshold.

2020Researchers reported that cosmic rays can decohere quantum systems within milliseconds 6 years ago

The study identified ionising radiation as a source of correlated errors in superconducting qubits. It highlighted an environmental constraint on scaling fault-tolerant hardware.

December 2020USTC implemented boson sampling on 76 photons with the Jiuzhang photonic quantum computer 6 years ago

The Chinese group claimed a classical computer would need 600 million years to generate the samples their processor produced in 20 seconds. It established a second national platform claiming quantum advantage, on photonics rather than superconductors.

Recent Developments

February 2026Chinese Academy of Sciences announced testing of the rare-earth alloy EuCo2Al9 as a sub-kelvin coolant

The alloy could substitute for helium-3 in cooling quantum computing hardware. The announcement followed DARPA's call for the same capability, indicating parallel national efforts on cryogenic materials.

January 2026DARPA called for proposals for a sub-kelvin coolant without helium-3

The solicitation targeted a critical supply-chain constraint on scaling quantum hardware, since helium-3 is scarce. It shows cryogenic infrastructure as a bottleneck capability.

Early 2026The UAE's Technology Innovation Institute broadened its quantum computing hardware programme this year

Abu Dhabi's applied research institute continued work across multiple qubit approaches as part of a wider Gulf push to build domestic quantum computing expertise rather than rely solely on hardware and software developed in the United States, Europe or China.

April 2025Governments worldwide pushed cumulative public investment in quantum computing to $10 billion 1 year ago

Global government funding aimed at longer coherence times and lower error rates reached ten billion dollars. The scale of state backing reflected quantum computing's treatment as a strategic national capability.

February 2025Microsoft unveiled the Majorana 1 topological qubit chip last year

The eight-qubit prototype was presented as evidence of a new, more error-resistant type of qubit built from exotic quasiparticles, though independent physicists urged caution given the field's history of retracted claims about the same underlying physics.

The claim revived scepticism from the physics community
2025Stanford University researchers realised an ambient-condition spin–photon interface nanodevice 1 year ago

A thin layer of molybdenum diselenide integrated on nanostructured silicon coupled electronic and photonic degrees of freedom using structured twisted light. Operation at ambient conditions suggests a path away from cryogenic hardware.

2025Researchers demonstrated networked quantum modules via photonic links and teleported gates 1 year ago

Quantum algorithms were distributed across a photonic network link between trapped-ion modules, and two-qubit gates were teleported between remote nitrogen-vacancy centre registers in diamond. These results pointed towards modular, distributed quantum architectures as a scaling route.

2025France's Pasqal expanded international deployment of its neutral-atom quantum computers last year

New systems went to government and research partners beyond Europe, extending a company founded by, among others, a Nobel laureate in physics into a genuinely international customer base spanning several continents.

2025The Global Risk Institute polled experts on the timeline for a code-breaking quantum computer last year

The Canadian nonprofit's yearly survey of specialists continued to inform how governments and companies plan migration away from vulnerable cryptography, with estimates for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer still spread across a wide range of years.

2025Israel continued building out its national quantum computing industry last year

Companies including Quantum Machines, which makes control hardware for quantum processors, and Classiq, a quantum software firm, expanded internationally, part of a domestic industry that has grown around the country's national quantum initiative and its research universities.

2025IBM set out a roadmap to a fault-tolerant machine called Starling last year

The plan relies on new error-correcting codes intended to cut the number of physical qubits needed per logical qubit, with a large-scale machine targeted for the end of the decade at a new facility in the United States.

2025–2026India's National Quantum Mission pushed its quantum computing hub toward higher qubit counts this year

Hub institutions working across superconducting, photonic and trapped-ion platforms continued government-funded development toward the mission's staged qubit targets, part of an eight-year programme intended to give India an indigenous quantum computing capability rather than dependence on imported systems.

December 2024Google crossed a long-sought error correction threshold with its Willow chip 2 years ago

The 105-qubit superconducting processor showed logical error rates falling as more physical qubits were added to each logical qubit, a long-sought threshold, and ran a benchmark calculation Google said no classical supercomputer could complete in a feasible time.

The below-threshold result addressed a decades-old worry about scaling
January 2024Researchers using the Sunway supercomputer verified quantum supremacy experiments via tensor network simulation 2 years ago

Exact amplitudes for experimentally generated bitstrings were computed using a multiple-amplitude tensor network contraction algorithm. The work demonstrated a leap in classical simulation capability, tightening the bar for quantum advantage claims.

2024Researchers demonstrated high-threshold, low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory 2 years ago

The approaches marked a critical step towards scaling beyond the noisy intermediate-scale quantum era into reliable architectures. Large-scale physical implementation nonetheless remained an engineering challenge.

2024USTC claimed a new quantum advantage with its Zuchongzhi 3.0 processor 2 years ago

The University of Science and Technology of China's 105-qubit superconducting chip ran a random circuit sampling benchmark that Chinese researchers said was many orders of magnitude harder to simulate classically than earlier such results, extending China's quantum hardware programme.

2024–2025PsiQuantum's Brisbane quantum computer continued construction under a major government-backed deal last year

Site work and component development proceeded under a joint commitment from the Australian federal government and the Queensland state government, one of the largest public investments anywhere in a single quantum computing project.

PsiQuantum pursued parallel projects elsewhere
June 2023IBM computer scientists reported a quantum computer outperforming a supercomputer on a physics problem 3 years ago

IBM claimed better results than a conventional supercomputer for a physics simulation task. The result was presented as evidence of practical utility, though classical machines still outperformed quantum ones across real-world applications as of 2023.

2023Researchers reported a hybrid quantum–classical generative model for molecule design on a quantum annealer 3 years ago

A restricted Boltzmann machine implemented on a commercial annealing device generated novel small molecules with drug-like physicochemical properties. It was an early applied demonstration in drug discovery.

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