Physical Health & Longevity

The capacity of the population to live long lives in good physical health.
Soft Power / Human Capital / Population Health

The capacity of the population to live long lives in good physical health.

Indicators

  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Healthy life expectancy
  • Premature mortality from non-communicable disease
Capability Developments

Major milestones and key developments of the capability

The Capability Development Index tracks the events that move a capability — operational use, technical breakthroughs, procurement decisions and the industrial base behind them — and places each on the record with the date it happened.

Recent developments cover the current period. Historical developments are the inflection points that produced Physical Health & Longevity as it stands today.

GeopoliticalGovernanceSecurityTechnologyEconomyEnvironmentSociety

Historical Developments

1347The Black Death killed a large share of the population across Eurasia and North Africa 679 years ago

The plague pandemic, spread along trade routes from Central Asia, is estimated to have killed a substantial proportion of the population in the regions it reached within a few years, reshaping labour markets, mortality patterns and public health responses for centuries afterward.

1721Variolation was introduced to Britain from Ottoman practice 305 years ago

Lady Mary Wortley Montagu, having observed the technique in Istanbul, promoted deliberate inoculation with smallpox material as protection against the disease, a practice with older roots in China and the Ottoman Empire that predated Jenner's safer vaccine by decades.

1796Edward Jenner demonstrated the first vaccine, against smallpox 230 years ago

Jenner showed that inoculation with cowpox protected against smallpox, building on existing variolation practice to create a safer method that became the basis for vaccination as a field and, eventually, for smallpox's eradication.

1854John Snow traced a London cholera outbreak to a contaminated water pump 172 years ago

By mapping cases around the Broad Street pump in Soho, Snow showed cholera spread through contaminated water rather than bad air, a founding demonstration of the methods now used throughout epidemiology to link disease outcomes to their causes.

1918The influenza pandemic killed tens of millions of people worldwide 108 years ago

Occurring in overlapping waves as the First World War ended, the pandemic killed more people than the war itself and remains the deadliest single infectious disease event in modern history, shaping later thinking on surveillance and pandemic preparedness.

India suffered the largest death toll of any single country
1921Albert Calmette and Camille Guérin gave the first human doses of the BCG tuberculosis vaccine 105 years ago

Developed in France from an attenuated strain of bacteria, the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine went on to become the most widely administered vaccine in history, still used in many high-burden countries despite variable effectiveness against adult pulmonary disease.

1928Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin 98 years ago

The chance observation that a mould killed surrounding bacteria led, after further development in the following decade, to the first widely used antibiotic, transforming mortality from bacterial infection, wound sepsis and childbirth complications worldwide.

1946World Health Organization defined health as complete physical, mental and social well-being 80 years ago

The WHO adopted a broad definition of health that went beyond the mere absence of disease or infirmity. This framing underpinned later population health thinking, in which health is understood as the capacity of people to adapt to, respond to or control life's challenges and changes, and it widened the range of outcomes that nations sought to measure.

1980The World Health Organization certified the global eradication of smallpox 46 years ago

A coordinated worldwide vaccination and surveillance campaign eliminated a disease that had killed several hundred million people during the twentieth century alone, making smallpox the only human disease eradicated to date.

Somalia recorded the last known natural case of smallpox
1988The Global Polio Eradication Initiative was launched 38 years ago

Led by national governments, the World Health Organization, Rotary International, UNICEF and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the campaign cut wild poliovirus cases by more than 99% over subsequent decades, leaving the disease endemic in only a handful of countries.

2000The GAVI Vaccine Alliance was founded to expand childhood immunisation in poorer countries 26 years ago

The partnership between governments, vaccine manufacturers, the World Health Organization and philanthropic donors pooled funding to buy vaccines at lower prices for low-income countries, credited with helping avert millions of child deaths from preventable disease in the following decades.

2008WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health reported that social determinants caused the bulk of disease and health inequity 18 years ago

The Commission concluded that social, environmental, cultural and physical determinants of health were responsible for most diseases and injuries and were the major causes of health inequities in all countries. The finding shifted attention from individual-level medicine towards population-level determinants, and in the United States such determinants were subsequently estimated to account for around 70 per cent of avoidable mortality.

Recent Developments

January 2025The United States recorded its first human death linked to H5N1 avian influenza last year

A patient in Louisiana died after exposure to infected birds, following a year in which the H5N1 virus spread widely among dairy cattle and infected dozens of farm workers, most with mild symptoms, keeping pandemic-preparedness agencies on heightened surveillance.

2025The World Health Organization reported global life expectancy continuing to recover from its pandemic-era fall last year

Average life expectancy at birth moved back toward pre-pandemic levels in most regions, though the gap between the highest and lowest-performing countries remained wide, with conflict, HIV burden and weak health systems continuing to hold down averages in the worst-affected countries.

2025The World Health Organization reported non-communicable disease continuing as the leading cause of death worldwide last year

Cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes together accounted for roughly seven in ten deaths globally, with the organisation noting that low and middle-income countries bore an increasing share of this burden even as infectious disease mortality continued a longer-term decline.

Tobacco use, unhealthy diets and physical inactivity remained the most significant modifiable risk factors driving the toll
2025Nigeria remained one of the largest single contributors to global maternal deaths last year

International agencies continued to report that Nigeria accounted for a disproportionate share of maternal deaths worldwide relative to its population, reflecting limited access to skilled birth attendance and emergency obstetric care in many states.

2025India continued to account for the largest share of the world's tuberculosis cases last year

Global tuberculosis reporting continued to show India, Indonesia and China among the highest-burden countries, with the World Health Organization noting that funding and case-finding gaps left progress toward the End TB Strategy's 2025 milestones off track.

August 2024The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern for the second time in three years 2 years ago

The declaration followed the spread of a more severe mpox clade, clade Ib, from the Democratic Republic of the Congo into several neighbouring countries, with sustained human-to-human transmission raising concern beyond the zoonotic spillover pattern seen in earlier outbreaks.

Cases linked to clade Ib were confirmed beyond Africa, including in Europe and Asia
2024The Americas recorded a record number of dengue cases 2 years ago

Brazil and several other countries reported unprecedented case counts as warmer, wetter conditions widened the range of the Aedes mosquitoes that transmit the virus, straining health systems already dealing with co-circulating chikungunya and Zika.

2024Sudan saw famine formally confirmed in displacement camps in North Darfur 2 years ago

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification process confirmed famine conditions in Zamzam camp, one of the few such formal determinations in recent years, as conflict-driven displacement and blocked humanitarian access left large populations without adequate food or healthcare.

2024–2025African countries expanded rollout of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine last year

Following World Health Organization prequalification, more countries introduced the lower-cost R21 vaccine alongside the earlier RTS,S vaccine into routine childhood immunisation schedules, part of a broader push to reduce malaria mortality, most of which falls on children under five.

Ghana, Kenya and Malawi had already piloted an earlier malaria vaccine before wider African rollout began
2024–2025Gulf and Pacific Island states continued to report some of the world's highest obesity and type 2 diabetes prevalence last year

Rapid dietary change and low physical activity kept obesity-linked conditions rising in several middle and high-income countries, prompting some governments to begin subsidising or debating access to newer GLP-1 weight-loss medications alongside longer-standing prevention campaigns.

2020US Department of Health and Human Services published Healthy People 2020 with some 1,200 population health goals 6 years ago

The Healthy People 2020 programme identified 42 topics treated as social determinants of health and roughly 1,200 specific goals intended to improve population health. It represented the cumulative product of 34 years of work by the Surgeon General's office and others, institutionalising measurable national population health targets.

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