Knowledge Production

The capacity to produce research at the frontier, in volume and at a quality the world cites.
Soft Power / Human Capital / Research Talent & Knowledge Creation

The capacity to produce research at the frontier, in volume and at a quality the world cites.

Indicators

  • Scientific publication output and world share
  • Highly cited publication share
  • International co-authorship rate
Capability Developments

Major milestones and key developments of the capability

The Capability Development Index tracks the events that move a capability — operational use, technical breakthroughs, procurement decisions and the industrial base behind them — and places each on the record with the date it happened.

Recent developments cover the current period. Historical developments are the inflection points that produced Knowledge Production as it stands today.

GeopoliticalGovernanceSecurityTechnologyEconomySociety

Historical Developments

7th century BCAshurbanipal assembled a royal library at Nineveh about 2,650 years ago

Thousands of cuneiform tablets covering astronomy, medicine, law and literature were systematically collected at state expense, forming one of the earliest known organised archives of technical and scholarly knowledge.

105Papermaking was refined in Han dynasty China, traditionally credited to Cai Lun around 1,900 years ago

A cheaper, more practical writing material than silk or bamboo strips spread through East Asia over the following centuries, later reaching the Islamic world and Europe, and became the basic medium on which recorded knowledge was produced for over a thousand years.

1440Johannes Gutenberg developed the movable-type printing press in Europe 586 years ago

Mechanical printing turned the reproduction of scholarly and technical texts from a slow, hand-copied process into one that could produce many identical copies quickly, transforming how research and ideas circulated across Europe.

17th–19th centuryAcademic journal publishing began in the 17th century and expanded greatly in the 19th 426 years ago

Publishing academic inquiry was initially controversial and widely ridiculed, with discoverers such as Newton and Leibniz announcing findings in indecipherable monographs to reserve priority. The spread of journal publication coincided with a decline in disputed priority claims, from 92% of simultaneous discoveries in the 17th century to 33% in the first half of the 20th.

1660Charles II chartered the Royal Society in London 366 years ago

The society formalised organised scientific inquiry and correspondence among researchers, becoming a model for national academies of science that later spread across Europe and, eventually, the rest of the world.

The Royal Society launched Philosophical Transactions
1665Denis de Sallo established the Journal des sçavans, Europe's earliest academic journal 361 years ago

The first issue appeared as a twelve-page quarto pamphlet on 5 January 1665, containing obituaries, church history and legal reports. It was followed within weeks by the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society on 6 March 1665, marking the birth of the formal scholarly journal.

1665The Royal Society launched the Philosophical Transactions, establishing open exchange of experimental evidence 361 years ago

First appearing on 6 March 1665, the journal embodied the Society's belief that science advances through transparent, open exchange of ideas backed by evidence. Estimates suggest around 50 million journal articles have been published since its first appearance.

1752The Royal Society of London took over Philosophical Transactions, originating routine peer review 274 years ago

The Society assumed official responsibility for the journal and instituted routine review of submissions. This marks the documented origin of peer review as a gatekeeping mechanism for research output.

1796Philosophical Transactions' editor rejected Edward Jenner's report of the first smallpox vaccination 230 years ago

The rejection is the earliest well-known case of an important scientific paper being turned down by a peer-reviewed journal. It illustrates the long-standing limits of refereeing as a filter on research output.

1877Japan founded Tokyo Imperial University 149 years ago

Built on Western scientific and organisational models during the Meiji era, it anchored Japan's rapid development of a modern research system and became the template for research universities across the country.

mid-20th centuryPeer review became the standard for scholarly publication 126 years ago

Early scientific journals had used varied models, from single-editor control over extracts of colleagues' letters to group decision-making. Only by the middle of the twentieth century did formal peer review become the universal norm across academic publishing.

late 20th centuryAcademic publishing replaced author-produced camera-ready copy with electronic formats such as PDF 126 years ago

Production workflows moved from physical camera-ready copy to digital files. The shift underpinned the later transition of scholarly communication to fully electronic distribution.

1901Alfred Nobel's bequest created the Nobel Prizes 125 years ago

The annual prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine and other fields became the most internationally recognised marker of research achievement, shaping how governments and universities publicised and competed over research output for more than a century.

1949China founded the Chinese Academy of Sciences 77 years ago

Established as the country's foremost research organisation, it grew over subsequent decades into the institution most often ranked first worldwide for high-quality research output by indices such as the Nature Index.

1960s–1970sCommercial publishers began acquiring top-quality journals from nonprofit academic societies 66 years ago

For-profit firms selectively bought up prestigious titles previously run by scholarly societies. This consolidated control of research dissemination in commercial hands and laid the groundwork for later pricing pressures.

1964Eugene Garfield launched the Science Citation Index 62 years ago

The index, produced by the Institute for Scientific Information, made it possible to trace which papers cited which others, creating the data backbone for citation counts, impact factors and the bibliometric rankings still used to compare research output today.

1970The Patent Cooperation Treaty created a single system for filing patent applications across many countries at once 56 years ago

Concluded in Washington and later administered by the World Intellectual Property Organization, the treaty let inventors seek protection in dozens of countries through one application, turning international patent counts into a standard measure of national research output.

1986–2005Academic libraries entered the serials crisis as journal expenditure outpaced acquisitions 40 years ago

Total expenditures on serials increased 7.6% per year while the number of serials purchased grew only 1.9% per year. Library budget shares shifted from 44% books and 56% journals in 1986 to 28% and 72% twelve years later, squeezing monograph publishing in the humanities.

1990sHumanities journals suffered collapsing circulation as libraries cancelled subscriptions 36 years ago

Circulation of many humanities journals fell to almost untenable levels during the decade, leaving fewer peer-reviewed outlets for publication. Many humanities professors' first books sold only a few hundred copies, failing to cover printing costs.

early 1990sAcademic libraries and publishers adopted widespread licensing of electronic resources 36 years ago

Licensing of electronic journals became very common, shifting business models away from print purchase. This transition reshaped how research output was distributed and paid for.

early 21st centuryPublishers introduced e-annotation tools into the proofing process

Streamlining came via e-annotations in Microsoft Word, Adobe Acrobat and similar programs. The process nonetheless remained time-consuming and error-prone.

2002Modern Language Association hoped electronic publishing would resolve the monograph crisis 24 years ago

With monographs increasingly required for tenure in the humanities but harder to publish, the MLA looked to electronic formats as a remedy. The statement highlighted the tension between research output requirements and publishing economics.

2004Bibliometric studies documented the concentration of highly cited output in 31 nations 22 years ago

A study published in 2004 found that 31 nations produced 97.5% of the most cited scientific articles, with the remaining 162 countries contributing less than 2.5%. Iran, China, India, Brazil and South Africa were the only developing countries in the leading group.

2004The European Union raised its share of world scientific papers to 39.3% 22 years ago

By 2004 the EU's share of global scientific paper output had risen from 36.6% to 39.3%, and its share of the top one per cent of highly cited papers from 32.8% to 37.5%. This marked a measurable shift in the geography of research output.

Recent Developments

2026South Korea and Taiwan continued to file among the world's most patents relative to population this year

Corporate research spending concentrated in semiconductors, displays and electronics translated into patent output per person among the highest of any economies, though both governments faced continuing questions about converting patent volume into higher-impact scientific publications.

2026Japan continued rolling out its University Fund aimed at lifting research output at a small number of elite institutions this year

The roughly ten-trillion-yen endowment fund, managed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency, channelled additional support to designated research universities as Tokyo sought to reverse a years-long decline in Japan's share of highly cited papers.

2026The World Intellectual Property Organization reported that China again filed the most international patent applications this year

The organisation's annual review of Patent Cooperation Treaty filings showed China ahead of the United States for another year, with South Korea and Japan also ranked among the largest filers of international patent applications.

South Korea and Japan held their positions among the top filers
2025A systematic review of global health journals documented gender and geographic imbalance on editorial boards 1 year ago

The 2025 review reported persistent inequalities among editorial board members of global health journals. Assessment of race, ethnicity, disability and sexual orientation remained limited, indicating governance inequalities in who controls research publication.

2025US research agencies and universities tightened compliance rules on international research collaboration last year

Expanded research security requirements, part of a broader Western tightening of rules on collaboration with researchers linked to China and other countries of concern, added new disclosure and vetting obligations for federally funded projects.

2025Academic publishers continued large-scale retractions tied to organised paper mills last year

Major publishing groups kept withdrawing papers linked to fabricated peer review and manufactured manuscripts, with independent trackers reporting integrity problems concentrated in a small number of journals and countries, and pressure growing for stricter screening before publication.

Independent trackers flagged a rising retraction rate
2025Brazil moved to rebuild federal science funding after years of instability last year

Restored funding for CNPq and CAPES, the country's main federal research funding agencies, aimed to sustain Brazil's position as Latin America's largest producer of scientific output, much of it indexed through the regional SciELO platform.

2025India climbed further up global rankings of research output by volume last year

India's number of published scientific papers continued to grow rapidly, placing it among the largest producers by volume worldwide, even as commentators continued to question average citation impact relative to output and the prevalence of lower-tier journals.

2025Saudi universities faced renewed scrutiny over recruiting highly cited researchers to boost rankings last year

Bibliometric analysts continued to question arrangements under which some Saudi institutions listed prominent foreign academics as affiliates, a practice that inflated citation counts and university rankings without necessarily reflecting research carried out in the country.

Clarivate tightened its highly cited researcher criteria
2025China extended its lead in high-quality research output, led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences last year

Bibliometric trackers such as the Nature Index continued to rank Chinese institutions, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences at the top, ahead of leading American and European universities, extending a lead in high-quality publication share that had opened up over the previous decade.

2024African universities expanded collaborative research networks aimed at raising the continent's global publication share 2 years ago

Groupings such as the African Research Universities Alliance continued to promote joint doctoral training and shared research infrastructure, with South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Egypt among the leading contributors to a still-small but growing continental share of global scientific output.

2022Cairn.info opened its Belgian portal to STM literature 4 years ago

The web portal, previously focused elsewhere, extended coverage to scientific, technical and medical publishing. It broadened non-Anglophone infrastructure for disseminating research output.

2020–2021The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a boom in medical publishing and preprint use 6 years ago

Unprecedented shifts in funding priorities produced a surge in publication numbers, popularised preprint servers and altered traditional peer review. Of 720,000 authors publishing on COVID-19 before August 2021, nearly 270,000 were from the US, UK, Italy or Spain, deepening Western concentration of science publishing.

2019China became the world's largest source of international patent applications for the first time 7 years ago

Filings under the Patent Cooperation Treaty put China ahead of the United States for the first time since the modern international filing system began, reflecting the scale-up of corporate and state research spending over the previous two decades.

The United States fell to second place in filings
May 2016Council of the European Union agreed all publicly funded research must be freely available from 2020 10 years ago

The Council resolved that from 2020 all scientific publications resulting from publicly funded research should be openly accessible. It was a major policy commitment to open access at the supranational level.

2013Five for-profit publishers accounted for 50% of all articles published 13 years ago

Reed Elsevier, Springer, Wiley-Blackwell, Taylor & Francis and SAGE together published half of all articles in 2013, despite over 2,000 publishers existing. Profit margins of around 40% made it one of the most profitable industries.

2011The Royal Society forecast China overtaking the United States in research papers 15 years ago

A 2011 report ranked the US first in share of English-language scientific research papers, followed by China, the UK, Germany, Japan, France and Canada. It predicted China would overtake the US before 2020, possibly as early as 2013.

2011STM publishing industry generated $23.5 billion in revenue 15 years ago

Scientific, technical and medical literature produced $23.5 billion in 2011, of which $9.4 billion came specifically from English-language scholarly journals. The figures underline the scale of the commercial apparatus surrounding research output.

2011Ellison reported a decline in peer-reviewed article use in economics 15 years ago

The 2011 study found that dramatically increased opportunities to publish results online had reduced reliance on peer-reviewed articles in economics. It evidenced discipline-specific divergence in how research output is validated.

2010–2020Web of Science indexed literature grew from 1.1 million to 1.8 million articles a year 16 years ago

Journals in the WOS database rose from around 8,500 in 2010 to around 9,400 in 2020, while annual articles increased from about 1.1 million to 1.8 million. The disproportionate growth in articles over titles shows intensifying research output volume.

2010sLibraries pursued aggressive cost cutting using open access and open data leverage 16 years ago

Libraries used the growing availability of open access material as negotiating leverage against publishers. This decade marked open access moving from advocacy to a bargaining instrument.

2009–2010Academic libraries faced budget cuts across surveys and reports 17 years ago

One 2009 survey found 36% of UK libraries had budgets cut by 10% or more, against 29% with increases. The squeeze intensified pressure on subscription-based access to research output.

2006Wellcome Trust and UK Research Councils announced extra funding for open access publication fees 20 years ago

Several funding agencies made additional money available to grantees to cover article processing charges. This was an early institutional push to shift publication costs from readers to funders.

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